Premier League Relegation Odds
37 and not 40 points is historically enough for Premier League survival
The general consensus is that 40 points is the magical safety barrier in the Premier League and only one of 33 teams to be relegated in the last 11 seasons have gone down with more than this total.
West Ham were relegated with 42 points in the 2002/03 campaign, but on the whole 37 points generally proves enough to survive the drop to the Championship.
In the last 11 seasons, only four teams have been relegation after accruing more than 37 points.
One of the big problems facing teams who are favoured for the drop is striking the right balance between attack and defence.
Goals often prove hard to come by for teams towards the foot of the table, but going on the offensive tends to leave them more susceptible at the other end.
However, keeping things tight may prove the most prudent strategy as a team would in theory survive if they drew all of their 38 Premier League games 0-0.
Meanwhile, no team has been relegated in the last 11 seasons who have conceded fewer than 50 goals and only two have gone down who have let in less than 56 goals.
Obviously teams do have to score some goals and as long as a goal difference does not exceed negative 15, there should be no danger of relegation.
Birmingham have had the best goal difference of all of the relegated teams in the last 11 seasons with their negative 16 figure in the 2007/08 campaign.
Therefore, when looking at the Premier League relegation odds, focusing on teams who are almost guaranteed to ship goals is a good starting point, especially if they appear to be short of attackers to chip in with a decent sum of goals.
Although only once in the history of the Premier League have all three promoted teams gone straight back down, which suggests that at least one of Reading, Southampton or West Ham will survive this season.